Here are some numbers that won't come across as shocking to anyone:
Sega Saturn - 9.5 million
Sega Dreamcast - 10.6 million
TurboGrafx 16/PC-Engine - 10 million
Microsoft Xbox - 24 million
NES/Famicom - 61.91 million
Super Nintendo - 49.1 million
Nintendo 64 - 32.93 million
Sega Genesis/MegaDrive - 29 million
Playstation - 102.49 million
Playstaion 2 - 136 million
If you want to see what the top selling consoles of all time are, check this out at VGChartz. The trouble with these stats is that none of them are correct by any means. The company will give a higher number or leak a higher number out to get good press, and analysts will only get so much information, so their number usually lacks. Add in older generations of consoles that weren't documented nearly as well, and it leaves some pretty gaping holes in the gap. I did the lazy thing and pulled my numbers from Wikipedia, and at least VGChartz backs most of it up.
Take a look, and take a long look, because I'm about to throw another three numbers at you:
360 - 30.2
PS3 - 23.8
Wii - 52.62
Yes, the Wii has sold about the same as Nintendo's competitors put together, but that's a route already dealt with. System survival, now there's the question. This relates to the "war", so pay attention.
First, let's spin each console.
The Wii is playing to the casual crowd, and it offered a system that is $250 rather than the $400-600 offerings their competitors had. Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and Wii Sports Resort are huge selling points for the console, and the latter they just got out the doors. The chances of this console being paired with another is pretty high, so you shouldn't read that number as 100% dominance over another. Games that historical gamers want just aren't offered on that console, so you're almost looking at an overlap of a target audience. Yes, Lego Indiana Jones is offered on all consoles, but the upcoming Batman: Arkham Asylum is not. Yet, for every Halo or God of War, there will be a Mario, Zelda, or Metroid to meet the challenge.
The downside to this, at least logically, is that if the casual crowd isn't hooked by Wii Sports Resort, then there aren't many more "must-have" titles in the near future for Nintendo. They've flaunted everything so far, and while they realize E3 was a bust, I still think they're missing the point. This "horse" idea they have floating around right now sounds a bit too much. Sure, imagine Panzer Dragoon in a full fledged Wii-room, but Natal has a chance to blow that out of the water with a successful launch - minus the extra hardware.
Give Nintendo until the end of this holiday season, because there will be a price drop, and the fringe-gamers from the casual side will jump in. After that, start looking for things to level off, but I don't expect sales to look bleak. It's like an iPhone, at this point. You can get it elsewhere, and cheaper, but the name lends itself to shopping by recognition.
On Microsoft's end, you have the "hardcore" crowd...supposedly. It is the standard "safe' console that will have everything you want, and they're even getting RPG's into the mix with their hightened focus on Japan. This is a balanced console with three major things going for it. They "could" drop Live pricing altogether, there's Project Natal, and they are the most prepared to take the price hit when the drops start coming. They also have a good lineup coming so far, and anything that Sony is going to do, they will match it in some way.
System sales will go up steadily. This will probably be the most steady rise you're going to see. The Xbox 360 has everything it needs to continue with plenty of good games coming in the next couple of years. Microsoft is also trying to get a branding idea going on, with Windows Live, Zune, and Xbox brands linking in scope. This becomes really dangerous to the other two in the next generation, but the big X-factor is Project Natal.
This will be the defining moment of the console. Success is not something that's measurable by a working design. It works, supposedly, and it can only work better in the future or they would've just released it. The trouble is implementation. Every gaming company is guilty of having a good idea get thrown to the wolves with no one really caring to back it up. Hell, Nintendo only JUST gave us 1:1, so even a successful idea can still be left to rot for a few years before really getting a deserved push. If Natal works and is backed strongly, the Xbox 360 and whatever the NextBox will be are going to get more sales and cement themselves into the fight for a while.
Sony is the black sheep, and I don't just mean the color. What they have given the public is a system that can pretty much do anything. Its feature set is still not realized, and firmware updates will prove that. Even it's feature set pales in comparison to what its hardware will be able to do. Trouble is, the game library is...slim. There is a future in the console, so it's not going to die off, but it is lacking in the sales and developers aren't developing on its strengths for monetary reasons. If the PS3 sold like the Wii did, then do you honestly think Resident Evil 5 would have been released on both consoles at the same time?
It's expensive, but there's a huge beacon of hope. First, as mentioned, it's not dying. There is a library of games on the way, and the one thing Sony hasn't had yet is coming: Final Fantasy XIII. No, I'm not exactly thinking of buying it because Squeenix sort of ruined FF for me, but system sales will jump on that week. Pair that up with the price drop that HAS to come before the holiday season, and you have the sleekest piece of tech on the market waiting to make a leap back into the fray. As for future sustainability, all these guys really have to do is put up a fight with the motion controls the other two are going to have. Just a fight. Mind you, I don't mean throwing a gimmick out like the EyeToy, but actually trying to put something out there that will equal Wii Sports. The magic wand is probably not going to work, but the pair-up with the PS Eye might just do the trick. If I can get my own batting stance into a baseball game, then the concept will have worked enough to get some casuals on board.
All that said, each console is going to be fine. I put up those numbers earlier to show something off, and that is that there is no conceivable way that any of the current consoles will "lose" the fight. Sure, the install base is higher. You can see why the moderately successful TurboGrafx looks like a failure when paired up with an actual failure like the Dreamcast that actually sold more consoles. The industry has grown that much, and continues to grow. The PS3 has pretty much matched the old Xbox sales totals already with plenty of room to grow, so no one should worry about their system.
One console will always dominate the rest for some reason or another. The NES popularized gaming. The SNES was a continuation of the popularity and support. The Playstation scored coups early and frequently and grabbed CD-based gaming by the horns. The Playstation 2 followed that up the same way the SNES did. This gen, Nintendo really nailed it...and I wonder if they can follow it up.
That's a rant for another day.
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